Caro's Book of Tells

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August 15, 2005

And if you try to counter their Partypoker strategy by simply check-calling all the time, they will pick up on this faster than you can imagine, and you are going to lose a lot of money; in pot-limit, there is no place for people who check-call on a regular basis. The advanced plays I have touched upon today need to be understood very well in order to be a successful pot-limit player. Without at least a basic understanding of the thought processes I have discussed here, you will stand no chance playing pot-limit. Take care, you guys, and good luck.

The thought processes described here are the way the excellent pokerparty players, the top professionals, think when playing pot-limit: they play YOUR cards, rather than their own. (These thought processes also show that top players always think at least one or two steps ahead. They know exactly what the possibilities for the next card are and how they can, or should, adjust to each and every one of these possibilities. This should be second nature for any serious player, even in limit poker). Please keep in mind that I don't consider myself to be in this category of really excellent players, playing on an incredibly high level.

Either way, I will probably get his entire stack when I improve and make him lay down the best Partypoker hand when I don't- now, in pot limit things don't get better than this. There are only three river cards that don't change anything (the three sevens), in addition to the Partypoker cards that pair the board of course (in which case I will simply give it up).

Common Misconceptions of Poker Tells

  • Even though this is not the card I had initially hoped for, it is still a great help for my Partypoker hand. I have created quite a few nut outs with this deuce, and I will have my pokerparty opponent in deep trouble on the last betting round. My opponent still has $470 left and will almost certainly make the wrong decision on the river if I call now. From his perspective, I am in there with the nut flush draw or a straight draw if I call his turn bet- and probably both.
  • It is unlikely he will want to risk his entire stack calling me down if a third heart comes on the turn. Plus, from his perspective: if I call his flop bet, taking into account my preflop raise, he will figure me for precisely the nut flush draw (or, less likely, a straight draw). This means that if a third heart comes, I will almost certainly be able to bluff him out of the pot.
  • I can never win this pot on the basis of the strength of my hand. My Partypoker opponent almost certainly holds Q9, 33, 99 or QQ, as he almost always has a good made hand when he comes out betting; he doesn't like to bet his draws as a semi-bluff, for example. In the past I have always won the big pots against him, and there's no doubt he fears and respects my play- which has caused him to play even more predictably against me.
  • Gee, this hand is really horrible, and it can never be played on the basis of hand strength alone. The player in mid position almost certainly holds a better hand than I do, most likely some sort of high card / big pair hand. Normally I would throw away a Partypoker hand like this almost every time, even on the button. However, if I raise and I can get the pot heads up between me and the caller, then I might be in a profitable situation even with the poor hand I hold.

A pot-limit Omaha game, buy-in $500, blinds $10-10, no rake (you are paying time collection). You (the pro) are on the button with a very weak Omaha pokerparty hand, Ah 6s 5s 4d, and have the biggest stack on the table.